Hindsight bias is only one example of how our brains can lead us astray. Hindsight bias is our tendency to perceive events that already happened as having been more predictable than they really were. History as a Distorted Story A basic example of the hindsight bias is when, after viewing the outcome of a potentially unforeseeable event, a person believes he or she “knew it all along”. Why will so many people criticize their government because of how they handled Covid-19? The term hindsight bias refers to the tendency of the people to claim that they knew the outcome of an event all along. If hindsight bias blinds us to the correct causes of bad outcomes, then we’re more likely to repeat the actions which led to those bad outcomes. Part of the reason why hindsight bias arises, is that we often look for the easiest explanations and predictions in order to quickly make sense of the world. Possible evacuation of the Pearl Harbor: Soon after the Pearl Harbor attack, people blamed the US intelligence for not evacuating even when they had intel about a possible attack. Examples of a Hindsight Bias. Examples of Hindsight Bias. This is a hindsight bias example. Research has shown, for example, that overconfident entrepreneurs are more likely to take on risky, ill-informed ventures that fail to produce a significant return on investment. In one classic psychology experiment, college students were asked to predict whether they thought then-nominee Clarence Thomas would be confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court. Hindsight bias can lead an … The hindsight bias is a common cognitive bias that involved the tendency of people to see events, even random ones, as more predictable than they are. His physician recommended a radiograph of his chest to identify the root of the issue, which revealed a large tumor. It is sometimes, but only superficially, referred to in court by the defence in mitigation. Read the article to know how to overcome hindsight bias and how hindsight bias helps in decision making. Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, is the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were. In 2000, a 69-year-old man began experiencing a persistent cough, chest discomfort, and weight loss. Impact Bias; Impact Bias is the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of future feelings in reaction to either good or bad occurrences. We can’t know if we’re out of the global economic crisis or if China will become the world’s leading superpower. D. None of the concepts occur in preindustrial societies. Hindsight Bias. It is the finals of the IPL tournament and your favourite team is playing. C. All of the concepts are examples of problem-solving strategies. Hindsight bias is the ex post tendency to overestimate the ex ante likelihood of an outcome, relative to what one would have actually guessed before the event. Negative outcomes require an explanation more than neutral or positive outcomes. Introduction For an individual or a group, hindsight is used negatively to criticize oneself or one’s group; however, it can also be used in a positive way. By: Erik Johnson and Nir Eyal . Hindsight Bias Example There are a number of possible examples of hindsight bias. Read on to learn why and to see some hindsight bias examples. Example #2 – Blaming victims. On the Saturday before a Super Bowl, far fewer people are sure of the outcome of the event, but on the Monday following, many more are willing to claim they were positive the winning team was indeed going to emerge the winner. On average they estimated the probability of a conviction at 50.5%. Here are 3 real life examples 1. Hindsight bias is a psychology that explain the tendency of people to overestimate their ability to have predicted an outcome. Hindsight bias can blind us to these factors and cause us to develop tunnel vision. Proactively, hindsight is also used by employees, leaders, and even managers or supervisors in the workplace. The hindsight bias (also called the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon) means that we see whatever event occurs as completely in line with our expectations, even if we would have seen a completely different outcome as also in line with our expectations (Hawkins & Hastie, 1990).. And only after the event … It’s a bias that is pervasive in day-to-day life. The hindsight bias is a type of bias that can be observed within various everyday events/scenarios. Once people know that an event has taken place, ... and the 30-second audio clip with every phone call are good examples.